Will Phelps and Co. Take Gold in the 400 Free Relay at Worlds?

The 13^th FINA World Swimming Championships will be held July 26-Aug. 2 in Rome. With the competition in the pool less than a week away, we take a look at some of the questions that will be answered at Stadia del Nuoto.

Who will win the showdown in the men’s 400m free relay, part deux?
Not to sound too much like Rowdy Gaines prior to the start of last year’s now-legendary Olympic race, but on paper, it’s hard to see any way the U.S. can win this one.

The French have five guys this year who have swum the 100-meter free in under 48 seconds. The Americans, meanwhile, have one– Jason Lezak – and he will not be competing in Rome. (Instead, he chose to compete at the Maccabiah Games in Israel, where he recently set a meet record of 47.78 in the 100m free). After that, the next-fastest guy this year is Nathan Adrian, who popped a 48.00 in Indy a week and a half ago.

So at first glance, it would seem the Americans are up against the wall. But if races were settled on paper, the French would have been celebrating their Olympic gold last year.

There are definitely glimmers of hope. Michael Phelps and Garrett Weber-Gale have not yet swum close to their lifetime bests (47.51 and 47.78, respectively) – and keep in mind that Phelps has been training very effectively for these shorter events. His recent world record in the 100m fly is proof of that, even if he did scratch from the 100 free at Nationals.

But it’s not up to just those two. Everyone is going to have to step up their game quite a bit to compete with the French juggernaut.

Can they do it?

Well, the Americans have a penchant for relay upsets – from the 1976 Olympic women’s 400 free relay, to the 1984 Olympic men’s 800 free relay to last year’s triumph in Beijing.

You just never know what will happen when the racers are head-to-head, pride is on the line, the adrenaline is kicking in and they’re being pulled along in the wake of a hulking human speedboat.

So what about the suits?
Yep, it’s the topic that won’t go away.

Will the new generation of super suits ruin this World Championships and the sport forever, or are they just a means by which the sport will become faster, less predictable and more exciting?

There’s not a whole lot we can add to either side of the argument that hasn’t been argued already. If you think you have something new and insightful to say regarding the suits, by all means, type it up in the comments section below.

At this point, there’s really nothing anyone can do about the whole situation, so there’s no point dwelling on it too much. In fact, the athletes themselves have no other choice but to pick a suit and get ready to compete. All we can do is watch and see what happens – whether we choose to enjoy the meet or not probably depends on which side of the argument you fall on.

Two thoughts concerning the suits before we sign out, however:

First, it is our observation that the suits didn’t have much bearing on who made the U.S. World Championships Team in Indy. By and large, the people who made the team were pretty much members of the 2008 Olympic Team, the U.S. National Team or were otherwise on the radar. There was no instance of some kid donning a super suit and magically dropping 10 seconds to make the team from out of nowhere. If there were any surprises at all, there weren’t any more than there have been at any other selection meet. It seems the suit can only carry you to a point.

Next, the three world records that fell at Nationals – the men’s 100m fly, 100m back and 200m back – fell at the hands of Michael Phelps and Aaron Peirsol, two guys we expect to break records on a consistent basis, special suit or no. And for those who need to be reminded, Peirsol broke both his records in a leg suit, not the full-body models that are bones of contention. As for the American records that were broken at Nationals, the swimmers who broke them have been on track or on the radar to do so for quite a while. Again, there was no instance of someone donning a super suit, coming out of nowhere and dropping 10 seconds to break one of these records.

We predict the same thing will happen at worlds. There won’t be many surprises. All the usual suspects will win medals; all the usual suspects will break records. Because when it comes down to it, it’s the athlete who will have to swim the race, not the suit.

The sad thing is, however, if some young swimmer comes out of nowhere in a race or two to take down a Michael Phelps or Aaron Peirsol, the suit will get all the credit – right or wrong. And if such a thing happens, the real tragedy is there is every reason to doubt and debate. Hopefully FINA will get its act together very soon and end the doubt once and for all.

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